by Every week of the regular season of 2025 I will use this space to mark teams with different funnel defenses and fantasy options that can benefit.
What is a funnel defense?
A funnel defense, in case you are wondering, is a defense that is confronted with an unusually high figure of passage attempts or hurry. I will take a good look at how opponents play these defenses in the neutral gamecript – when the game is in a touchdown in both ways – and how good or bad these haste and pass defenses have been lately.
Identifying funnel defenses is hardly an exact science, and an expressed gamecript can always thwart our best plans. It happens. In recent seasons I have found it useful to analyze matchups through this lens to see if there are useful additions to the always-agonating start-sit process that we have put ourselves through every week.
This analysis will improve with more data. It happens every season. Up to week 3 we now have enough information to understand which teams are being adjusted as a funnel defense.
Arranging and evaluating all top games of week 4 at Quarterback, walking back, receiver, tight end, kicker and defense.
Pass -funnel Matchups
Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions
The lions will destroy the browns. The negative gamecript for Joe Flacco And the browns quickly come into these, as often against teams that try to win, unlike the hyperconservative, frightened packers in week 3.
The lions here are 9.5-point home favorites. They will do everything they can to browse a Cleveland Ground game that has been legitimate since then Quinshon Judkins Finally a member of the team and came back as their clear lead. The browns are top-five in Yards after contact per almost per almost in the past two weeks. When the script is neutral, they will do everything they can to establish it.
With few roads to neutral script, search for flacco to stack the drop-backs against the Pass-Tunnel Lions. Detroit is confronted with a 64 percent neutral gamecript, the seventh highest in the NFL. Last week the lions saw the mostly balanced ravens eight percent about their expected pass rate against them. Detroit does not sniff the run in any way.
Rotten negative script for Cleveland would be a blessing for more than four boys, to a variety of: Jerry Jeudy” Cedric Tillman” David NjokuAnd Harold Fannin. It is Fannin who has a comfortable lead in goals per route (24 percen), although he runs a route at only 55 percent of the dropbacks of the browns. Njoku is now 76 percent. Both tight ends of Cleveland play here in the game if, like me, you expect the browns to leave the run.
Jeudy remains somewhat interesting because – like me wrote this week in this week’s regression files – He stores air yards and runs all routes. Maybe fifty drop-backs for Flacco Jeudy have no choice but fantasy-relevant songs in week 4.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
This season, the Jags are a (very) reliable pass judge of the Pass Funnel. They have confronted with the seventh highest fitting rate of the competition on the expected expected and the third highest neutral fitting percentage (68 percent). It is nice to have that kind of clarity so early.
Jacksonville has a solid run defense for all the different shortcomings of the team. They allow the lowest percentage of missed tackles from the NFL forced by carry and the lowest speed of rushing after contact. You can say – and you would be right – that opposite runners have the extremely difficult time against the Jaguars.
That is forced Jaguars opponents to go to the air looking for Yardage. I expect that the 49 people, with a medium 57 percent neutral pass rate this season, go to Jacksonville in week 4, open more routes and goals for Ricky Pearsall” Jauan Jennings (if he plays), and Jake TangesHe continues to work as TE1 of the team with George Kittle set aside. And of course Christian McCaffrey Will continue to be peppered with goals until it improves morally (CMC has 31 goals, seven more than the next nearest runs, the’von Achane).
Tanges provides an interesting streaming option in a considerable matchup. Be warned: he has run a route at 65 percent of the drop-backs of the Niners in the past two weeks, a less-dan-stellar situation.
Matthew Berry reveals the 10 facts you need to know before week 4, including why Caleb Williams vs. Geno Smith is ready to be a shootout.
Perform Funnel -Matchups
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
In the tradition of a tree that does not fall close to anyone, when Andy Reid And the Chiefs have a run judge matchup, does it matter? Philosophers have searched for this question for generations.
Maybe not. But maybe! The ravens are in any case one of the most extreme Run fungal thighs of the NFL to week 3. The ravens have proved susceptible to large runs: 34 percent of the hasty yards against them came to explosive rushes, the sixth highest percentage in the NFL. Perhaps it should not be surprising that Ravens opponents have posted a neutral fitting rate of 49 percent through three games, the lowest in the competition.
In theory of week 4, that should make a nice place Isiah Pacheco. Except that Pacheco is not really the RB1 in this violation. He has 25 hasty attempts to make 23 rushes for Kareem Hunt. The fact that Pacheco leads the KC -Terveldveld in pass routes is not as good as it seems. He has walked a route on a meager 37 percent of the Dropbacks of the team and he is the target at only 13 percent of his routes.
The leaders who lead the competition in Pass rate about expectations, someone can think and reid and Patrick Mahomes have given up on the flight. However, that is not entirely true. Kansas City has a passage rate of 56 percent this year in neutral situations; Only 12 teams are lower. They have shown some interest in establishing it, and against a vulnerable Baltimore Front Seven, we could see them try again. If you ever play Pacheco with some confidence, this week it is against a Run Defire Defense.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
The jets may be able to do what they log in to the dolphins in week 4. They arrived in the 2025 season and told everyone who would listen that they would run the ball so much or more than anyone. You have no idea how far we are willing to push this old-school bit, head coach Aaron Glenn said again and again.
Up to week 3, the Jets are 6.5 percent under their expected fitting rate, the lowest in the NFL. They do the thing. In week 4 they are opposed to a defense of Miami who has seen opponents run the ball with a 50 percent clip in the neutral gamecript. Two of the three opponents of the dolphins have been under their expected Pass rate this season.
It should spell good things Breece HallWho saw 38 of the 52 of the team running back. Hall has been good by three games. He is in the top 20 in Rush yards after contact per rush, on average 4.2 yards per carry. Compared to Backfield-Mate Braelon AllenHall is Barry Sanders Circa 1994. Hall’s route percentage (38 percent) could be better, but if you need some cope, here is some Cope: Hall is aimed at 27 percent of those routes. His week 4 -matchup could hardly be better.
